10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - February 4

We are back for another ’10 Stats’ and this week we are looking at former and current Philadelphia Flyers, young players thriving, and forwards with underwhelming seasons who’ve changed their offensive approach. As always, data is from Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey, player tracking data is from AllThreeZones, and viz is from HockeyViz, all as of the afternoon of Monday, February 3^rd.

1 – Philly Joel

Quietly, Joel Farabee was one of the most consistent producers at 5-on-5 from 2021-2024, coming in as 1 of 49 forwards to average at least 0.8 goals and 1.0 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in each season. Those marks are both second-line production rates, so he was a good, consistent producer for years, and is still just 24 years old.

Farabee loves to play off the rush, posting the third-highest total of shots+assists off the rush per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play among Flyers forwards over the last two seasons, behind only Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett. However, before the recent trade to Calgary, he spent less than one-third of the 2024-25 season with Konecny and almost no time with Tippett. He has been slotted next to Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, which is good for him because those two Flames forwards are the two regular forwards who play more off the rush than anyone else on the roster:

This seems a good fit for Farabee and Calgary needs scoring help. Let’s see how this goes, but on this Flames roster, he’s in as good a spot to succeed as he can be.

2 – Copycat League

Back in November, we reviewed how Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon was shooting less and passing more, trying to elevate his teammates. That has persisted, and there’s another high-end scorer following suit.

Staying with the Flyers, Travis Konecny is averaging 7.4 assists on teammate scoring chances every 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (SCA/60). That is 2^nd among all forwards (minimum 150 tracked minutes), trailing only MacKinnon. It is a slight increase over last year only (7.33/60), but he’s sacrificed his 5-on-5 shot attempt rate (iCF/60) to do it:

It is worth mentioning that his shot attempt rate last season was still solid with a high scoring chance assist rate, so there’s something else going on. Regardless, the playmaking isn’t paying off like it was last season, and now his scoring is suffering.

3 – Detroit Domination

Just before Christmas, this space covered the defensive success of Detroit rookie forward Marco Kasper. The Red Wings hired a new coach (Todd McLellan) on Boxing Day, and it wasn’t long until Kasper was slotted on Detroit’s top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. Before Christmas, that top line was getting outshot (180-158) and outscored (19-16) at 5-on-5 without Kasper on the ice. It has been a completely different story since they hired McLellan, and he put Kasper next to Larkin/Raymond. In their 164 minutes together, they are outshooting the opposition 96-70 and outscoring them 9-6. They have been very successful offensively at 5-on-5:

It isn’t a large sample yet, but there’s been a lot of good here since being assembled. It gives Detroit a legitimate top scoring line at 5-on-5, and they’ll need that as they continue to push for the playoffs.

4 – Live, Love, Slaf

On December 4^th, 2023, Juraj Slafkovský was moved to Montreal’s top line. In the 107 games since, he has 1.22 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Across the league, that ties him with Casey Mittelstadt, Mikko Rantanen, and John Tavares around the 81^st percentile of regular forwards. Over his last 1.5 seasons, he has some very notable comparisons by rate of assists on scoring chances and high-danger passes (across the slot or from behind the net) at 5-on-5:

There is still a lot of growth to come from Slafkovský as he’s still just 20 years old, but that playmaking dimension has really come to the forefront over his last 100-plus games. It’s a good sign for his future offensive impact.

5 – Not McLovin’ It

Connor McDavid’s most-common winger is Zach Hyman, and they’ve been excellent offensively together (3.9 goals-for/60). His second most-common winger is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and they’ve been nowhere near as good as they usually are with 2.95 goals/60 against a three-year average of 3.94 goals/60. Nugent-Hopkins currently sits with 1.25 points per 60 minutes and that’s the production of a low-end third-liner. When looking as to why, RNH is creating 60% less offence off the cycle than his two-year average:

This is a team that cannot afford to have someone like RNH performing like a third liner, so let’s keep an eye on whether he can turn his season around over the next month. It may impact what Edmonton does at the Trade Deadline.

6 – Carter Ver-Heywhatisgoingonhere

One thing that usually makes Florida forward Carter Verhaeghe such a proficient offensive producer at 5-on-5 is that he has a balanced approach where he typically excels both off the rush and off the forecheck. He is in the midst of his worst offensive season since joining Florida, and it’s curious that his ability to generate off the rush has completely disappeared:

As a team, Florida is generating less off the rush than last year (down 20%), but that Verhaeghe has seen his shots and assists off the rush cut so dramatically indicates there’s a reason why he’s not producing as he normally does. He had a hat trick on Sunday so hopefully this is the start of his turnaround because he’s an important part of their scoring attack.

7 – The Bold and the Shoot-iful

Matt Boldy’s shot rate at 5-on-5 (9.2/60) is a career-high mark, and that’s good. What isn’t good is that his goal rate (0.59) is a career low, and nearly half his career rate prior to this season (1.11). Much like Verhaeghe, there may be a reason for this in the way he’s creating offence because he’s also creating far less off the rush than he usually does:

Overall, Boldy was taking nearly 50% more shots off the rush over the prior two seasons than he has this year. Unlike Verhaeghe, though, Minnesota is creating more off the rush this year than last, so Boldy is an outlier on his team in how he’s approaching his offence, and it’s hurting his production.

8 – Laying The Sherwood

Vancouver’s Kiefer Sherwood assists on a 5-on-5 goal on Sunday night, and that assist brought him to 2.02 points/60 at 5v5 this season. That ties his output in Nashville last season and pushed him to the top of all Vancouver forwards by points/60 at 5-on-5 this season. Coincidentally (or not), he is also creating far more off the rush than any other regular Canucks forward:

Also coincidentally, Elias Pettersson’s best on-ice goals-for rates have come with Nils Höglander and Sherwood. It might be time for the coaches to put Sherwood back on his line.

9 – Luke Rushskater

Luke Evangelista scored his first 5-on-5 goal of the season over the weekend, which isn’t ideal considering he’s played 41 games. However, sticking with a theme here, the culprit may be that he’s playing much differently than his teammates as he’s creating far more off the rush than any other regular Nashville forward:

Considering Evangelista rarely plays with Nashville’s top forwards – less than 10% of his 5-on-5 time have come with either Flip Forsberg or Jonathan Marchessault – the difference between what he creates off the rush and what his usual line mates create is even more drastic. That type of disconnect between line mates gives us some context on why Evangelista has struggled to produce at 5-on-5.

10 – Good as Gourde

We got news that Seattle forward Yanni Gourde is going to miss over a month because of hernia surgery. That takes us right up to, or past, the Trade Deadline, which is notable in that he’s a 33-year-old pending free agent on a non-playoff team. It seems likely he gets traded, even if he hasn’t returned to action by the deadline.

One team that could use his services is Toronto, who are desperate for a third-line centre that can help at both ends of the ice. What is important here is that Toronto, as a team, relies more on creating off the cycle/forecheck than almost anyone else (only Florida, Washington, and Carolina do it more). Considering how much Gourde creates off the cycle/forecheck, it seems like he’d mesh with most anyone among their top-9 forwards:

It is risky because this is still a 33-year-old coming off an in-season surgery, but when looking for a two-way centre who fits what the team wants to do, Gourde checks a lot of boxes. New Jersey may also want to check in here.

Until next week.