10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - November 12, 2024

We are back with 10 Interesting (To Me) Stats. Today, we are focusing on defencemen and looking at shot rates, dominance, struggling puck-movers, and more.

Data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and PuckIQ. Tracking from AllThreeZones.

1) League-Wide Shot Share From Defencemen

The 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons saw relatively the same share of all shot attempts come from defencemen at 31.7% and 31.8%, respectively. So far in the 2024-25 season, that number has risen to 32.9%. Climbing that much, over the course of a full season and at the league’s current shot rates, would mean an additional 1700 shot attempts from defencemen. This is just something to keep an eye on as the season progresses because it would be fairly dramatic shift in a single campaign.  

2) Carolina’s Shooting Defencemen

One issue the Carolina Hurricanes have long had is turning possession dominance into goals. A big issue was the shots from the blue line as Carolina led the league by percentage of team shot attempts from a defenceman in each of the last two seasons, exceeding 38% in both campaigns (league average was around 31.8%).

So far in 2024-25, Carolina once again leads the league in overall shot attempts per minute, but they are fourth by goals per minute. Coincidentally, as of Monday night, they were seventh in the league by percentage of team shot attempts coming from defencemen, and considerably lower than the 38%-39% marks they usually have:

Let’s see if this lasts, but Carolina is generating elite shot volume (again), but getting more shots from their forwards, and that seems to be helping their scoring.

3) New Jersey’s Pair of Jonas Siegenthaler and Jonathan Kovacevic

New Jersey’s defence corps has gotten healthy, but one constant this season has been the tremendous play of the Jonas Siegenthaler/Jonathan Kovacevic pair. In a 264-minute sample with them on the ice at 5-on-5, the Devils are carrying a 15-6 goal advantage and a 59.1% expected goal share. Importantly, they’re taking the lion’s share of top-line matchups from the opponent:

A very nice rebound season for both players thus far, and a dominant matchup pair like this can help the high-end offensive options on the other pairs.  

4) Mathew Dumba Struggling

Dallas is scoring 20% fewer goals at 5-on-5 this season compared their their 2022-2024 average. A drop like that isn’t caused by any one thing, but Mathew Dumba’s tough season stood out. He is last among their regular defencemen by on-ice 5-on-5 goals-for per 60 minutes at 1.42, and it’s not just bad luck with an expected goals-for rate of 1.67. One thing stood out and that is he’s failing to exit the zone on 28.9% of his defensive zone puck touches against a team average of 22%:

That also highlights just how much the team is suffering offensively with Ilya Lyubushkin on the ice, too. The overall issue is that they don’t play on the same pair together, so they’re sinking two pairs every game. With either (or both) on the ice at 5-on-5, the Stars have a minus-5 shot differential and are even by goals for/against. With both on the bench, the Stars have a plus-35 shot differential and are plus-4 by goals for/against. They need to be a lot better for this team to improve offensively at 5-on-5.

5) David Savard’s Turnovers

Safe to say that the Montreal Canadiens have been awful defensively to start the season. Like Dallas, there isn’t a single reason, but one thing that hurts a team is being pinned in your zone. Failing to exit the defensive zone means turnovers, more time spent on your heels, and goals against.

That is what’s happening to Canadiens’ defenceman David Savard. He is far from the lone player at fault – Arber Xhekaj has been pretty bad – but Savard leads the team by defensive zone touches per 60 minutes. When you’re used that much, you need to clear the zone, and he’s failing to do that on over one-third of his touches:

He has failed to exit the zone more often than the other four defencemen that get similar touches and is considerably worse than three of the four. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

6) Nashville’s Expensive Way To Lose

When your top defence pair has a combined cap hit over $16-million, you probably want good play at both ends. The Nashville Predators are not getting that from Roman Josi and Brady Skjei as they are getting crushed defensively:

In 129 minutes together at 5-on-5, Nashville is giving up 5.2 goals against per 60 minutes, or more than double the league average. With either (or both) on the ice, they are allowing a scoring chance on 18.2% of zone entries allowed against a league average of 15.2%. Not a great start.

7) Old, Wild, and Healthy

It is amazing what being healthy can do for a team. So far this season, Minnesota is first in the league by expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, also leading by actual goals against. Brock Faber has been very good again, but the pairing of Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon has been dominant when together with a 4-2 goal differential and, as importantly, a 75% expected goal share:

We need to see more than 100 minutes, but even 80% of this effectiveness would be a high-end pair. So far, so good.

8) Vladislav Gavrikov Locking Things Down

Los Angeles went into Monday night’s game with a 9-4-3 record, pacing for a 108-point season. The defence has a lot to do with it, and Vladislav Gavrikov in particular. Here is how the team is faring defensively with him on and off the ice at 5-on-5:

In 285 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, he has been on the ice for just seven goals against (the team has a plus-7 goal differential).

To be sure, Mikey Anderson has helped, and they have been tremendous together. But even in Gavrikov’s 125 minutes at 5-on-5 without Anderson on the ice, Los Angeles has allowed 1.7 expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.3 actual goals against). Anderson and Gavrikov, in five tracked games, denied zone entries at a 21.7% clip. The league average is 7.8%. It is preposterous how good they’ve been defensively, both together and apart.

9) Who is Bowen Byram?

It was small samples, but Bowen Byram was great for Colorado’s 2022 Stanley Cup run, leading the team’s blue line by both goal share and expected goal share at 5-on-5. He genuinely looked to be one of the next great, young puck-moving defencemen by doing a lot of the things we look for like zone exits, entries, passes for scoring chances and so on:

He was good again in 2022-23, if a bit worse, and maybe it was due to injuries. He was very bad in 2023-24, though, and was subsequently traded to Buffalo.

So far this season, he’s failing to exit the zone more than any Buffalo defenceman. The goals-for rate leads the team, but Buffalo is also shooting 16.4% with him on the ice at 5-on-5 (leads all defencemen with 150 minutes played and only two other defencemen are above 15%). An interesting player who requires more digging into.

10) Early Success for Simon Edvinsson

Detroit has been one of the worst 5-on-5 scoring teams in the league this season, but Simon Edvinsson has been tremendous. Here is how the team is faring by expected goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with him on and off the ice:

His pairing with Moritz Seider has been excellent as Detroit has a plus-5 goal differential at 5-on-5 with them on the ice (170 minutes), and an expected goal share of 57.8%. It is fantastic play, especially on a poor 5-on-5 team like this.

Until next week.