10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - April 8

We are back for another week of ’10 Stats’. This week’s theme will be rookies of the 2024-25 season and while there are still games left to play, we have an idea of who is going to have a good, great, average, or bad season, so let’s go through some key stats.

As always, player data is from Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey, tracking data is from AllThreeZones, and viz is from HockeyViz. Player data as of the afternoon of Monday, April 7^th.

1 – Matvei MichGAR

Philadelphia winger Matvei Michkov has been on an offensive tear that long pre-dates the firing of coach John Tortorella: Since the Four Nations Cup break ended, Michkov has 8 goals, 14 assists, and 69 shots in 20 games. Of those 22 points, 21 have come at 5-on-5, which leads the league in that span.

Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) model, which measures a player’s impacts in different areas of the game, has a specific even-strength offensive impact measure. Offensively, both actual GAR and expected GAR at even strength, here are the wingers Michkov compares to this season:

Had Michkov not been healthy scratched/benched at times, or been on a team with an awful power play, he is almost certainly a 70-point player. Team context matters a lot, and Michkov is excelling despite his, not because of it.

2 – Passing Lane

With 64 points, Montreal defenceman Lane Hutson is tied for the sixth-most points ever by a defenceman in a rookie season, and the most since the 1980s. Of those 64 points, 25 have come on the power play, which helps a lot, but also masks how effective he has been at 5-on-5.

Using the tracking data, we are looking at defencemen with at least 200 tracked minutes and have above average rates of both zone exits and zone entries. Of those defencemen, here are the ones who:

- Carry the puck into the offensive zone at least 50% of the time

- Successfully exit the defensive zone at least 80% of the time

- Exit the defensive zone with possession at least 66% of the time

- Fail to exit the defensive zone less than 25% of the time

- Have an above-average rate of assists on teammate scoring chances (SCA/60)

- Have an above-average rate of high-danger passes (HDPass/60)

Those are a lot of measures just to find who really are the elite puck movers. Hutson doesn’t have nearly the workload rate for exits/entries that Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski do, but he’s still a rookie in his age-20 season with fewer than a full season of games. Hutson has been a spectacular puck-mover and he’s just starting to scratch the surface.

3 – Celebrini Good Times, Come On

Staying with the tracking data, what San Jose centre Macklin Celebrini has done is preposterous. He is a true red-shirt rookie in that he doesn’t even turn 19 years old until June. Here are the centres with 200 tracked minutes, are at least one standard deviation above average by both assists on teammate scoring chances and all scoring chance contributions (assists and individual chances), and comparable rates of high-danger passes:

One of those names is a superstar on a Stanley Cup contending team and is in the conversation for his second MVP trophy in the last six years. The other is an 18-year-old on a bottom-3 team in the league. Celebrini is a wizard.

4 – The Year Of The Wolf

The Calgary Flames are still within striking distance of a playoff spot and the biggest reason is goaltender Dustin Wolf. In fact, by Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes this season, the gap between Wolf and backup Dan Vladar is the fourth-largest between starter and backup in the league (backup needs at least 1200 minutes because it gives us at least 20 games):

Wolf has saved the Flames about two-thirds of a goal every start compared to his backup, which is what makes him one of the top rookies in the league this season.

5 – Cut, Man

It was a tough start to the season for Anaheim forward Cutter Gauthier with 2 goals and 7 assists at 5-on-5 through 33 games up to the Christmas break. It has been a completely different second half with 9 goals and 11 assists at 5-on-5 over his last 42 games.

One big change has been his shot selection. He has increased his rate of shot attempts at 5-on-5 since Christmas, but his rate of individual expected goals has increased dramatically, and it’s resulting in far fewer shot attempts necessary to generate one expected goal:

There have been a few improvements in the tracking data, too, so the production jump is legitimate and not a mirage. This is a strong second half from Gauthier that portends a full-fledged breakout in 2025-26.

6 – Sturdy Back End

Impact from rookies isn’t limited to the offensive zone. Detroit rookie Marco Kasper has been good defensively for the team, providing a positive impact in his zone. Tracking data shows the comparable forwards to Kasper this season among those who retrieve the puck in the defensive zone at an above average rate, botch fewer than 10% of their retrievals, fail to exit the zone less than 10% of the time, and carry the puck out themselves at least 25% of the time:

This is a very impressive list that covers some excellent two-way forwards that have several seasons of experience under their belts. It is hard to ask for much more of a better rookie season from a non-generational draft pick.

7 – Making A Difference

Impact from rookies also isn’t limited to just the offensive or defensive zones. The ability to draw penalties, and take few, is very valuable, and can help indicate a good offensive player. Consider that from 2021-2024, among the forwards to be +40 by penalties drawn/taken are names like McDavid, Pettersson, Stützle, Hughes, MacKinnon, Kadri, Hischier, Raymond, Pavelski, and Kaprizov.

That is why Carolina’s Logan Stankoven stands out. On the season, he is at a +20 penalties drawn/taken differential, which is double the number of the next-closest rookie. Not only does he lead rookies, but he leads the league:

Going back to last season, Stankoven leads the league in penalty differential per 60 minutes. He looks like he’ll be a special, special player.

8 – Making A Difference, Part 2

Second among all rookies by penalty differential is Chicago’s Frank Nazar at +10. The key there is he has played just 48 games, not joining the roster until mid-December. On a per-game basis, he is tied for the 10^th-best penalty differential, and in company with some top names:

Anyone who has watched Nazar play will not be shocked that he’s good at creating positive penalty differentials, but being this good so early in his career is a great sign for him and for the team’s future.

9 – Denton Matey-fucks

It has been a fine start to the career of Columbus defenceman Denton Mateychuk as earning a top-4 role on a team pushing for a playoff spot is no small feat for a rookie. While it has been uneven at times, it is important to note that he has a solid impact defensively for the Blue Jackets. While he’s typically known for his puck-moving skills and transition play, HockeyViz has Mateychuk having a positive defensive impact on nearly all of his teammates (the red boxes lower than the blue ones indicates worse expected goals against rates without him on the ice):

This season is just Mateychuk finding his sea legs on a team that has struggled defensively, so it’ll be interesting to see how he follows up next season. He has the upside to be a big difference-maker.

10 – Tsyppin’ on Wins and Juice

New York Islanders winger Maxim Tsyplakov has seen his role diminish as the season has worn on, but he does lead Islanders’ forwards by primary assist rate at 5-on-5 this season. He has been heavily involved in their offence with a rate of zone entries just over 24.0 per 60 minutes, which leads all their regular forwards (Mathew Barzal is higher but has a very small sample due to injury). Across the league, Tsyplakov’s rate of zone entries is in the 88^th percentile. When matched with how often he carries the puck in himself, how often those carried entries result in a scoring chance, these are the forwards he compares to:

The Islanders are in desperate need of talented offensive players, and this has been a very good rookie effort from Tsyplakov. He needs to repeat this performance for us to believe, but it’s a great start.

Until next week.