10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - April 1
No April Fools jokes today, just stats that can help explain what’s going on around the NHL. This week, we are focusing on helpful depth, changes in team defence, sliding teams, and one backup goalie. As usual, player data is from Natural Stat Trick, goalie data is from Evolving Hockey, tracking data is from AllThreeZones, and viz is from HockeyViz.
1 – Byfield of Dreams
As Los Angeles barrels towards the playoffs, it is important to highlight how good Quinton Byfield is and has been. Back in mid-December, the Kings had a 6-game winning streak snapped. Since that point, Byfield leads the team with 27 points at 5-on-5 while ranking top-10 among regular forwards across the league by 5-on-5 goal share. He has blossomed into the team’s top centre, which is a huge development for the team.
In fact, over the last two seasons, Byfield has been top-30 among regular forwards by Evolving Hockey’s even-strength goal differential per 60 minutes and expected goals differential per 60 minutes (minimum of 1500 minutes). Here is his closest comparison among centres:
It is worth noting that Byfield doesn’t turn 23 years old until August. He is getting to his prime and is easily a top-50 forward in the league. The future of the Los Angeles franchise is here.
2 – Hall of Shane
On the topic of young players being vital to a team’s playoff appearance, there is a lot of talk in Ottawa about Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson, and rightly so. However, that excludes how good Shane Pinto has been for Ottawa in the second half. Since the Christmas break, here are the forwards he compares to by goal share relative to teammates and expected goal share relative to teammates:
A lot of this time has been in a shutdown role, which has had mixed results, but he has provided solid secondary production and been a big part of the team’s success. He will need to keep this up once playoffs roll around if the Senators want a deep run.
3 – Bottom’s Up
Having star players is necessary for a Stanley Cup win, but having depth helps a lot, too. Even with all the stories surrounding the Washington Capitals this season, their depth has been an important part of the success. With top forwards Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Aliaksei Protas off the ice, the Capitals are outscoring the opposition 50-40 at 5-on-5 and driving the play with a 51% expected goal share:
Comparatively, Florida is +3 at 5-on-5 with their top forwards off the ice while Toronto is -8. The Caps have depth forwards that can not only break even, but win them a game once in a while, and that’s important when thinking about a Stanley Cup.
4 – Danish Chef
In 12 games since acquiring Oliver Bjorkstrand, Tampa Bay has gone 7-4-1, which is good but not elite. This can hide just how good Bjorkstrand has been largely playing a third-line role for the team. Since the trade, the Lightning are outscoring the opposition 7-4 at 5-on-5 with Bjorkstrand on ice. On top of that, when looking at Bjorkstrand’s 5-on-5 minutes with either (or both of) Yanni Gourde or Nick Paul on the ice, the team’s shot attempt share is just under 60% and expected goal share is just under 65%:
Up until the trade, Tampa Bay had a 44.7% expected goal share with their top-5 forwards off the ice. Since the trade, that is 51.6%. Bjorkstrand and Gourde have helped give this team a legitimate third line, which is a big development for them as the head towards the postseason.
5 – Coach of the Year?
When St. Louis fired old head coach Drew Bannister on November 24th, the Blues were 26th in the league by points percentage and had a pitiful -21 goal differential in 22 games played. Since then, they are sixth by points percentage with a +36 goal differential in 53 games.
One big change is the performance of the blue line. Since hiring new coach Jim Montgomery, not only have Blues defencemen improved their percentage of opponent zone entries denied (Denial%), but they also have the largest drop in percentage of opponent zone entries being carried in (Carry Against%):
These improvements are a big reason why St. Louis went from a below-average-to-poor defensive team under Bannister to one of the best defensive teams in the league under Montgomery. He likely won’t win coach of the year, but he should be in the conversation.
6 – Don’t Give Me This Olé Bullshit
Through Toronto’s first 20 games of the season, the team had a top-10 rate by expected goals against at 5-on-5 and the fifth-lowest goals against rate. Since then, their expected goals against rate is 21st in the league and the goals against rate has dropped to 12th. What has changed?
When looking through St. Louis’ improvements, the Toronto Maple Leafs really stuck out at the opposite end. Since November 24th, or those first 20 games for Toronto, the Leafs have the fourth-highest rise by Carry Against% and the largest drop by Denial%:
Since November 24th, those two measures of Toronto’s defencemen have them closest to teams like Buffalo and the New York Rangers. They have a few weeks to take care of this because a blue line this porous will not suffice for a deep postseason run.
7 – Great Teal Sharks
The final note on defence changes is that when looking through the improvements St. Louis made, it made sense to see teams like Winnipeg and Los Angeles in their neighbourhood. However, the team I was not expecting was San Jose, who have seen the 4th-best improvement to Carry Against% and the 2nd-best improvement in Denial%:
It hasn’t helped their goals against much, as they remain near the bottom of the league, but some of these underlying numbers were among the worst in the league earlier in the season and are at least respectable now. If they can maintain this in coming seasons, it is one of those things that will mean a lot in 2-3 years when the team’s defence group is more mature and rounded out.
8 – Conor With One ‘N’
On bad teams, it can be hard to find good stories but Pittsburgh defenceman Conor Timmins has been one of those lately. He is up to 10 games with the Penguins since being traded by Toronto and in that time, he has at the top of the leaderboard in areas like shot attempt share and expected goal share relative to his teammates at 5-on-5:
Of course, this is just 10 games and doesn’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme, but Timmins had strong expected goal differentials over the last two seasons in Toronto. If he can replicate that in Pittsburgh, this could be a sneaky-good pickup for the next 4-5 years as the team looks to rebuild in the post-Crosby era.
9 – Falling Stars
Heading into Monday night’s game, Dallas was on a 5-game winning streak and was 16-4-3 since the injury to Miro Heiskanen on January 28th. They are clearly on a roll but it’s also hiding a big problem: Their team defence.
Since that injury to Heiskanen, Dallas is 31st by expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, bottom-5 by both shot attempts and shots against per 60 minutes, and 18th by goals against. By those four defensive measures, here is the team Dallas best compares to defensively since the Heiskanen injury:
Dallas’s offence has been burying opponents and that has helped mask their defensive problems. As things stand, they are staring down a first-round playoff matchup with the Colorado Avalanche, which is about as brutal a first-round matchup as possible. If Heiskanen is unable to return, there are serious questions about whether this Stars defence can hold down the elite offensive teams.
10 – Back That Azz Up
Backup goalies don’t get a lot of shine, but we do have to shout out how good New Jersey’s Jake Allen has been in the second half of the season. In calendar 2025, he has a 7-9 record in 15 starts (16 games played), which hides just how much the team has needed him: In those 16 games, the Devils scored just 33 goals. That is 2.06 goals-for per game and to put it into perspective, the team with the lowest goals-for per game rate this season is Nashville at 2.52.
Going 7-9 while getting two goals per game of support is nothing short of a miracle, and that miracle shows up in Allen having by far the highest rate of goals saved above expected per game since January 1st (minimum 15 games):
Yes, that says Allen has saved New Jersey just shy of 1.2 goals against per game over the last three months. It is one of those stretches where, given the pathetic goal support, if Allen is even league-average, New Jersey might go 2-14 or 3-13 rather than 7-9. That would have put them on the brink of missing the playoffs, so he has effectively saved their season. A superhuman effort to avert what could have been a disaster for the Devils.
Until next week.